��ԭ�ͼ۸�Ľ׶��Ʒ��ҹ��ʾ��£�

2012-4-5

��ڣ�ԭ�ͼ۸��ڵ��Լ��

��һ��ԭ��г��Ļ��

��ԭ��г��˷��ļ۸񲨶��ȣ��г��ܸ�Ϊ��ԭ�ͼ۸��ơ�ԭ��Ϊ��÷�չ�Ļ��Դ��۸��ڵĳ��ܽ��Ծ��ɽϴ�Ӱ�졣�Ӿ��еĹ��濴��ͼ۵��ǽ��ɱ��ļ��٣��¾��˥�ˣ��Ӿ��е��濴��ͼ۵ĳ��ǽ��ᵼ��ͨ��͵ļӾ磬��٣��ڹ��ʸ��Ե�Լ��£��Ͷ��Ҳ��٣��ý��ܵ��ϴ�Ӱ�졣��ѧ�Һ��ܶ��٣�JamesD��Hamilton��ԭ�ͼ۸�仯�뾭��ع�ϵ��о��ͼ۵Ĺ��Ȳ��Ҽ�ͥ��ҵ��֧��Ŀ��Ӷ��Ծ��γɸ��Ӱ�졣

��ǵ��ڣ�Business Cycle��Ҳ��ҵ��ڡ��ҵѭ��ѭ��Ϊ��Գ��ֵľ��뾭�ý��ѭ��һ��һ��淴ӳ�˾��ԡ�ȫ��Եķ�չ��ƣ��Ǿ��и��Ҫ��ۺ��õĽ��һ��棬�ֻ�Ծ��и��ķ��γ��Ҫ��Ӱ��Լ��ԭ��г��Ϊ��Ʒ�г��Ҫ��ɲ��֣��Ծ�̶ȱ�ȻҲ��ܵ��ڵ�Ӱ��Լ��ھ��ý��ʱ��ԭ��ӣ��Ѳ��ԭ�ͼ۸񽫻��ý��˥��ʱ��ή��Ѽ��ԭ�ͼ۸�Ҳ��ֻ��䡣��ˣ��һ��ͼ۵Ĳ��Ծ��ɳ��һ��澭��ڵ�ѭ��ȴҲ��ԭ��г��γ�Լ��Ӱ��ͼ۵ķ�չ��ơ�

��ѭ��ԭ�ͼ۸��Ĺ��ɽ��

��ǿ��Խ�ȫ�򾭼��1983��ķ�չ��̴��»��Ϊ��ڣ��а��ĸ��Ϊ��ڣ�1983��1988��ҡ�1989��1996��ҡ�1997��1999��ҡ�2000��2007��ҡ��ÿһ��У�ȫ�򾭼��ǰһ��еĸ߷忪ʼ��䣬�ڴ��֮��𲽻ָ��˥��١�Ŀǰȫ�򾭼��ڵ��С�

��ͼ5��Կ��ǰ�ĸ��У�ԭ�ͼ۸�ı仯�뾭��Ե��ع�ϵ��ÿһ�־��õĸ��ԭ�ͼ۸��ǣ��ÿһ�־��õ�˥��ֵ��ͼ۵��µ��ڵ�ǰ��ľ��ڣ��һ��ϵ��Ϊ��ԣ��δ�Σ��ȫ��Σ��ȫ�򾭼��˥�ˣ��ڣ�ԭ�ͼ۸�Ҳ��µ��ŦԼ��Ʒ��ԭ��ֻ��۸��2007��ĩ��93��9��Ԫ��Ͱ��2008��׵�41��8��Ԫ��Ͱ��55��5%��

��⣬ȫ��ԭ��Ѵ��ľ��ڶ�ԭ�ͼ۸�Ҳ��Ҫ��Ӱ�졣��Ϊ��2003��õĳ��ŦԼ��Ʒ��WTIԭ��ڻ��۸�Ҳ��߸ߡ��еļ��ξ��ÿ��׶Σ�ԭ�ͼ۸�Ҳ��֮��ǡ�2007��2008��ý��ڣ��ڡ��Ȼ��г�Ԥ�ڵȶ��ص�Ӱ�죬ԭ�ͼ۸�һ�ȳ��145��Ԫ��Ͱ��ھ��˶��ڵ��֮��ԭ�ͼ۸��ܵ��ڵ�Լ��ʼ��µ��2008��WTIԭ��ڻ��۸��58��7��Ԫ��Ͱ��59��5%��2009��ȫ��Σ��ȣ��߳�˥�ˣ�ԭ�ͼ۸�Ҳ��֮��ů��2009��3��GDP��Ϊ2��8%��ӽ�Σ��ǰ��ˮƽ��ԭ�ͼ۸�Ҳ�ظ��70��80��Ԫ��Ͱ��䣬��2007��2��3��Ȼ��ƽ��

��ڵ��ԭ��г��

�ھ��2007��2008��֮��2009��ȫ�򾭼ö��Ƽ��߳�˥��̶��2010��ŷ��Ȩծ��Σ��Ӱ�죬��ʽ��г��𵴣��ȫ�򾭼õĸ��δŤת��IMF��Ԥ�⣬ȫ�򾭼ý��ھ��2009��1��06%��֮��븴��ڣ�2010�ꡢ2011�ꡢ2012��2013��ȫ�򾭼ý��ֱ��3��10%��4��19%��4��56%��4��54%��ھ��ø��ڣ�ȫ�򾭼ý��𲽻�ů��ٷ�չ�׶Σ��Դ�г��Ͷ��ӣ��ԭ�͵Ŀ��ɺ��Ҳ��ڿ��ž��ɸ��٣��ԭ�ͼ۸�Ҳ��¸ߣ��ԭ�ͼ۸�140��Ԫ��Ͱ�Ĺؿ�Ҳ��ٴ�ͻ�ơ�

�ġ��ԭ��г��۸��ƶ��ҹ��ʾ

��1997��ҹ�ԭ�Ͷ��ʽӹ��ͼ��ͼ�֮��Ϊһ�ֵ��۸�Ӱ��ƣ��ͼ۱��ܹ��ͼ۲��Ӱ�졣��Ž�Щ��й��ÿ��ٷ�չ��ʯ�ͽ��ڴ��ԭ��г��ľ��Ҳ��ҹ��е�Ӱ��һ��棬��ͼ۳��ǽ��ҹ��֧��Ӱ��ó��ӯ�࣬ͬʱ��Ӵ��ͨ��ѹ��ƶ��ָ��ߡ��һ��棬��ͼ۵Ĵ��½��п��ܶ��ҹ�ʯ��ҵ�γɽϴ��ǰ�ڴ��ԭ�͵��ҵ��ܻ��Ϊ�۸��½��ܾ޶��ʧ��ʯ�Ϳ��ҵҲ��Ϊ��ͼ۶Թ��ͼ۵�Ӱ��ӯ��𣬲��Ӱ��ҵ��ϵ��ţ��񾭼��ɽϴ��ա��ˣ��ҹ�Ӧ��ݹ��ԭ��г��ĳ��С��ڵĽ׶��뷢չ��ƣ��ȡ��ʩԤ��ԭ�ͼ۸��Ҳ��γɵĸ��ֳ��ά��ھ��õĳ��ȶ��չ��

�ӳ��ڿ��ɺĽ��Դģ�ͶԹ��ԭ��г��ž��Ե�Ӱ�죬��ҹ�ʯ�Ϳ��ҵӦ��׳��ʵ��֡��߳�ȥ��ڹ��г��ϵĵ�λ��Ӱ�죬Ŭ��δ��ԭ�ͽ�ȱ��ֺ��ˡ��ͬʱ��ҹ��Ӧ��ƽ��Դ�Ŀ��ã�Ѱ��˵�ʯ��Ʒ��δ��Դƿ��Ծ��ѹ��δ��ȫ��Դ��ȡ��ơ�

��ڿ��ȫ��Σ��ı��ӣ��ı��ȫ�򾭼õ��ڡ��ھ��˳��˥��֮��ȫ�򾭼ý��գ��Σ��ĳ��Ӱ��δ��Ȩծ��ʲ��ȸ��ַ��δ��ܾ��Ӱ�죬ԭ�ͼ۸��һ��ڵ��׶Σ��ʵ��ļ۸�ͻ�ơ��ˣ��ҹ�Ӧ��һ�׶Σ��Σ��ǰ��ԭ��г��𵴶Թ��ھ��ɵĸ��Ӱ�죬��ץס��ᡢԤ�Ȳ��֣�Ϊδ��ת�䡢ԭ�ͼ۸��׼��

�Ӷ��ڿ��ǵ�Ͷ��ض�ԭ�ͼ۸��Ӱ�죬�ҹ�Ӧ��һ��ƹ��ͼ��ƣ��𲽸ı䱻��ܹ��ͼ۱䶯��Ӱ�죬�ڹ��ԭ��г��ά��ҹ��󡣴��⣬�ҹ�ҲӦ��һ��ǿ��ƹ��ڻ��г��裬��ԭ��ڻ��г��澭�飬�Ƴ��ԭ��ڻ�Ʒ�֣��γɺ��ԭ�ͼ۸��γɻ��ƣ��ͼ۵ľ��Ҳ��

ע�ͣ�

[1]��ĵõ��ϲƾ��ѧ��211��̡��ڽ��Ŀ��ϲƾ��ѧ��л��Ŀ��

�ο��ף�

��Harold Hotelling��The Economics of Exhaustible Resources��The Journal of Political Economy��Vol��39��No��2��April 1931��

�� Murray Carlson��Zeigham Khokher��Sheridan Titman��Equilibrium Exhaustible Resource Price Dynamics��NBER Working Paper��No��12000��January 2006��

��Nancy Peregrim Marion��Lars E��O��Svensson��Adjustment to expected and unexpected oil price increases��NBER Working Paper��No��997��October 2008��

��James D��Hamilton��Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08��NBER Working Paper��No��15002��May 2009��

��James D��Hamilton��Understanding Crude Oil Prices��NBER Working Paper��No��14492��November 2008��

��Robert Barsky��Lutz Kilian��Oil and the MacroeconomySince the 1970s��NBER Working Paper��No��10855��October 2004��

��һ��̺��ǿ��û��ͷ�ٽ��ƽ�ȽϿ췢չ��۾��ù��2010��3�ڡ�

��塢��Ŀơ��͡��ǰ��Դ��õ��ơ��۾��о��2010��6�ڡ�

��Դ�� ��۾��о��