ԭ��ڻ�� - �й��ñ��չ�˾

ԭ��ڻ��

2012-6-21

��2011�꿪ʼ��й�֤ȯ�ල��ίԱ��(֤��)��Ϻ�֤ȯ��(��)�Ͳ��ϴ��й�ԭ��ڻ��г��ڽ��ųﱸ�С��˺��̫�࣬�Ѿ��Ǽ��񾭡��ԭ��ڻ��ݰ��ĳ�̨��Ϊҵ��ע��˷ܵ㡣

18��ԭ��ڻ��й��г��Ӵ��й��ԭ�Ͷ��۽��ٿ��ɫ��£�

·��

��ѹ��ԭ��ڻ��²ݰ��Ʒ��Ҫ��ԭ�򣺹��ƽ̨��۽��ס��˰����¹��й�ԭ��ڻ��δ��ͼ��

��Ʋݰ��ԭ��ڻ��ĺ�Լ��Ϊ��ʺ��ԭ�ͣ��С�䶯��λΪ0.01��Ԫ-0.1��Ԫ��ռ۸��󲨶��һ��ս��۵ġ�5%��ױ�֤��Ϊ��Լ��ֵ��7%��ݰ��ʾ��ԭ��ڻ��Ľ��׵�λ��ÿ��1000Ͱ��Ϊ100Ͱ��ı�֮��Լ�ŷ�޵�ԭ��ڻ��г��ȫһ�¡�

��ڱ��ѡ��ϣ��г��ʵ��ԭ�Ϳ��ܱȽ��׽��ܡ��Ϻ��ڻ��ܲ��Ϊ��Ŀǰ��ԭ��ڻ��г��д��𲽽׶Σ��ǰ��ģ��ߺ�׷��ߵĽ�ɫ��г��ı����Ʒ��г��г��ȡ�δ��һ��۵Ļ��ϣ��ʵ��ױ����ͨ��ˮ��ƶȰ��ţ��ﷶΧ��Ӧ�г��ı仯��

��⣬ԭ��ڻ��˰��;��۽��ʽҲ��ȷ��ζ��ԭ�Ͳ��Ҫ��أ��ں��Ͼ��ܽ��н���ݰ��Ψһû��ȷ��ǻ��ҼƼ��Լ��㷽ʽ��˽⵽��ز��Ź�ͨ��׼��Ӧ�Է��

��Ŀǰ��ԭ��ڻ��ļƼ۷�ʽ�ͽ��㷽ʽ��Ԫ��ң��г��Ķ��顣��ܷ��ʿ��Ϊ��Ԫ��ۿ��Ը��

��Ԫ�Ƽۣ��ױ��г��ܣ��ǳ�Զ��϶�Ĺ��ͻ��룬ʹ�й�ԭ��ڻ��硣��һλ��Ը��ڻ��ʦ�Լ��˵��κ�һ��ڻ��Ʒ��ȫ��г�ʱ��һЩ��⡣��Ԫ�Ƽ۵Ļ�ԭ��ڻ��ѧ�ѻ��Щ��

��ҵ��ʿ��Ϊ��ҹ��ʱ��Ŀ��Ҳ��ɶһ��Ҳ��δ�г��ڻ��׽��Ǿ��Ͷ��ߣ��Ҫ�е��۸񲨶��⣬��Ҫ�е��ʺͻ��ʲ��ա�

��Ϊ��֤ԭ��ڻ�˳��Ƴ��ܳ��ҽ��ɣ��Ԫ��һλ�ڻ��˾�߲��ʿ��ʾ��

����ڱ��

��ʵҵ��ʿ��ԭ��ڻ��İ��1993��Ϻ�ʯ�ͽ��Ƴ�ԭ��ڻ��ס��󣬻��Ʒ�ڻ��ʯ�ͽ��Ʒ��Ƴ�ԭ��ڻ��Լ��1994��5�£��ش��ߵ��ոյ��й�ԭ��ڻ��г��Ȼ��ֹ��1993��й��ʯ�ͳ��ڹ�ת��Ϊʯ�ͽ��ڹ��ڽ��й�ʯ�ͻ�׼�۸��Ŭ��ʼ��δ��ͣЪ��ź��ǣ��û��ԭ��ڻ��г��ԭ��ֻ�ܹҿ�ӡ��˹ԭ�Ͷ��ۣ�ʤ��ԭ�͹ҿ�ӡ��ԭ�Ͷ��ۣ��ԭ�͹ҿ�ӡ��ԭ�Ͷ��ۡ��й��ڵ�ԭ��Ҫ��ж��ͷ��ޣ��޼ʽ��(ICE)��ԭ��ڻ��۸�Ϊ��ۻ�׼��

��ֹҿ��֮��͹�Գ��ˡ��׼��ȱʧ��ר��ָ��ʵ�ϣ��ŷ��Ĳ��ء�ŦԼ�ͼ��𽥳�Ϊ��Զ��ۻ�׼��£��Ϊȫ��ԭ��Ҫ��ѵأ��̫��Ҫһ��µ�Ȩ��׼�ͼ��Է�ӳ��һ��г��״��
��ھ��ʯ��Σ��֮��ȡ��һЩ��ʩ��ر��ͨ��ǿ��ƽ��г��ƺ��Ƴ�ʯ��ڻ��Լ��ŷ��˶Թ��ʯ�ͼ۸��Ƶ��Ӧ�ü��Խ��й�ʯ�ʹ�ѧ��˵��

��ʵ��Ž��г��ƣ��ҹ��Ѿ��߱��˽��ԭ��ڻ��꣬��ԭ��ڻ��к��ң��ܲ�Ҳ��ʽ��ϱ�ʾ��ԭ��ڻ��ӡ��ȥ��3�£��»��Ԯ��Ϻ��һ��ļ��ݰ��ƣ��Ϻ��ٽ�ԭ��ڻ��ķ�չ��Ϊ��Ϻ��ڻ��׼��ʱ��Ϊ��2011��ԭ��ڻ��һֱ��2011��ף��δ�ܳ��С�

��߲��ԭ��ڻ��г��Ļ��¼ұ��1��6��ȫ��ڹ��Ƴ�ԭ�͵ȴ��Ʒ�ڻ�Ʒ�ֺ��ؽ��Ʒ��֮��֤��ϯ��4��17�ձ�ʾ��ƶ��ڻ��г��չ��ǽ��֤��ص㹤��֮һ��й��Ӣ��Ƴ��ȫ��ԭ��ڻ��г��ԭ�Ͷ��Ȩ��һֱ�ڽ��ųﱸ��µ�ԭ��ڻ��Ʋݰ��

���Ƴ��ʱ

��ݰ��Ƴ��𲽳��죬Ҳ��ζ��ԭ��ڻ��Ƴ�ָ�տɴ��

��ڹ��ڽ��ȫ��ԭ��ڻ��г�֮�󣬹��С��æ��й�ԭ��ڻ��ġ�Ӫ��ڡ��ʵ��Ҫ��߽��й�ͨ��ʹ��Ը��뵽�й��ԭ��ڻ��г��ǰ��ȫ��Ҫ��ʯ�͹�˾��ڻ��ʯ��ó�׹�˾�Լ��̵ȡ��ͬʱ��ﱸ��Լ�δ��г��Ҳ��ƶ��С��ǰ��Ϻ��ڻ��Ϊ��Ѿ�׼��3��ࡣ

��ڻ�֪��ʿ�ƣ��֮��Ѿ��ʶ��й��ڻ��г��չ��ԭ��ڻ��г��й�ԭ�Ͷ��Ѿ��ﵽ57%��ԭ�Ͷ��Ȩ��ŷ��г��У��й��г�Ӱ��ܴ��֤��Ѿ��ȫԱ��ս״̬��ϵ��£��ƴ��ǰ�ƣ��ܶණ��ͬʱ׼��һ��죬��ϾͿ��Ƴ�ԭ��ڻ��

����漰��֤��ᡢ��ᡢ��С��֡��ί��񲿡��Լ��ʯ�͹�˾�Ĺ�ͨ��Э��Ϥ��ԭ��ڻ��ļƻ��ȡ��ɣ��سﱸ��Ա��ž޴��ѹ��

��ǰ��ý�屨��Ѷ�ԭ��ڻ��з�ȷ��ޣ�ϣ��ԭ��ڻ��ڽ��ʮһ��ǰ�ܹ��Ƴ��Դˣ�ҵ��ʿ��Ϊ��Ŀǰ�Ľ�չ��ԭ��10��ԭ��ڻ��Ŀ��Ժ�С�� ڻ��о��ʾ��һ��λ��һ��ʼ��Ԫ�Ƽۡ��ҽ��㣬׼��Ͷ��߲μӣ�ԭ��ڻ��ʮһǰ�Ƴ��ѡ��ֲ��У��Ƴ��⿪�ţ�ʮһǰ�Ƴ��п��ܵġ�

��֤��ᡢ�Ϻ��г��ڴ��Ϻ��ڻ��Ե�Ҫ��öࡣ֪��ʿ˵��ȽϽ��ԭ��ڣ��Ƶĺܶ�Ʒ��ʵ��Ч��̫�á��ԭ��ڻ��һ��ǣһ��ȫ��Ʒ�֡��Բ��ں;��Ͷ��߲�û��׼��ã�û�˽��ף��ǰ��Ĺ��ˡ��Ϻ��ڻ��뾡��ڿ��ȫ��׼��ֵ��Ƴ��

���ſ�ԭ��г��ǹؼ�

��Ȼ��ּ��ԭ��ڻ��нŲ��ڼӿ죬��ǰ��ǰ��Ȼ��ء�

��Ϊ��Ƴ�ԭ��ڻ��ϰ��һ��Ƶ��⣬��ܲ��ҪЭ��ܾ��·��ȡ��ڶ��ڳ�Ʒ�Ͷ��Ȩ��ڷ��ί��У��йز��Ƿ�Ը��޸Ķ��ۻ��ƣ��𲽷��һ��Ȩ��д��̶��Ͷ��ߣ��Ͷ��ͨ��ʲô��Ͷ�ʹ��ԭ��ڻ��ȯ�̡��ڻ��˾��ʽ��ģ��˰��Ҫ�õ�˰��ֵܾ��ϡ��壬��ܽ��ó�׵��Ҳ��Ҫ��Э��

��Ŀǰ�й�ʯ��ҵ��ͨ��Ƶ��״�ǣ��˾��ԭ�ͺͳ�Ʒ��90%��Դ��Ʒ��Ȩ��ֻ��ն��ۻ��ڿ��г��ʺ��ҵ��ʹ�õ��Ʒ��۵ľ�Ӫ��֤��Ҳ��˾��Գ�Ϊ��ľ�Ӫ��塣

��ԭ��ڻ��ƶ��⣬ר��ձ��Ϊ��ԭ��г��Ҫ��ʹ�γ��˻�׼�۸�Ҳ��߱��ԡ�

��˵��ʹ��ʯ��г�¢��û��Ƴ��ԭ��ڻ�Ҳ��Ϊ�й��ԭ��ڻ��г��ǹ��Եģ��ܹ��¢��Դ��ơ��ʹ��ڹ��г��Ѿ��ţ��һ��ڵ�ԭ��ڻ��г�Ҳ��û��ģ��Ϊ��γ��й��Ӱ��Ļ�׼�۸�

����ǰ��

��й�ԭ��ڻ��ǰ��ĳȯ��ϵ�ڻ��˾�ܾ��Ϊ��֤��Ὣ�г��ӳ��ֺ󣬽��ҷ��ί��ڹ��ԭ��ڻ��ƽ��е��Ҫ��ɫ��Ŀǰ��ҷ��ί�й��ʿ��뷨�ǣ�ԭ��ڻ��ƽ��ɷ��ڳ�Ʒ�Ͷ��ƶȸĸ�ҹ��

��⣬��й��г��ԣ��Ƴ�ԭ��ڻ��ֱ�ӵ��й�Ͷ��߸��Ч�ر�ֵ��գ��ӿ��ҵ�ṹ�Ż��ͬʱ��ֻ��г��ϣ��ԭ��ڻ��г��Ҳ��ڹ��Ҹ��õض��г��к�۵��ء�

��Ϻ��ڻ��йظ��˸��߼��ߣ��Ϊ��ж��ͼۿ��ƶ��ԭ��ڻ��WTI��Ƴ��Ϊ��ͼ۱��֮һ��10��ʱ�䡣��й�ԭ��ڻ��ܳɹ��У��ʵ��ӳ�й��ԭ��ڻ��Ϊ��г��ı�ˣ�ҲΪ�й��Ʒ�Ͷ��ۻ��ṩһ��ҽ��ȫ��ļ۸��׼��

��ͬʱ��14�꣬ǰ��ش��ĳ�Ʒ�Ͷ��ۻ��Ҳ�ٴ��ٸĸ��ר��ָ��ԭ��ڻ��֮�󣬽��ܶ��ӳ�й�ʯ��г��ѽṹ��ԭ�ͻ�׼�۸��ڳ�Ʒ�ͼ۸�ҹ��󣬳�Ʒ�Ͷ��ۻ��Ƹĸ��µ�·��

��˽⣬��һ�ֳ�Ʒ�Ͷ��ۻ��Ƹĸ﷽��ϱ��Ժ��ݳ��Ѳ²⵽��̵��ڡ��ӿ��Ƶ��⣬��ڹҿ��WTI��Խ�һ��Ż��ͼ۵Ĺ��ԭ�Ͳ��ϵ��

��ҵ��ʿ��Ϊ��ҿ��α겻�α��Ĵ�ʩ��ܽ��Ļ�׼�۸񣬵��ҿ��ޡ��˵��ۺ��ĸ��ֹҹ��һ��׼�г��ģʽ��ʵ��϶��ڿ��˵��Ԥ��

��ʯ��ó�׽Ƕȿ��һ��ԭ��ڻ��Ľ��ʹ��ԭ�ͽ��ڹ��ƣ��Դ�ϱ��˾��ӡ��ĵط��Ӫ��Ϳ��Ի��Դ��Ӷ��Ƴ��ͻ��ڵ�¢�ϣ�ʵ��γ�Ʒ�͹�Ӧ��г��

��Ȼ��Ҳ�в��ҵ��ʿ��Ƴ�ԭ��ڻ��ñ�ʾ��ɡ�ǰ��м��ȼ��г��Ƴ��8��ƣ��̶ȴ��Ŀ��á��һ��ʱ��н��׺�ʵ�ｻ��Ժ�ŷ��֣��г��Ĳ�Ʒ��ֻ�ͬ�ȼ�λ��Զ��³��Ȼ��

��Σ��ɷ��д�ұȽ��Ͽɵ�һ��ǣ��Ự��Ȩ��һ��͵��£��Ҫһ��ڡ��ѵĹ��̣�ԭ��ڻ��Ƴ�ֻ��Ϊ��Ự��Ȩ��»��ʯ�͵ļ۸��ֹ�ϵ��ҹ��õķ�չ��ԭ�Ͷ��Ȩ�Ǳ��ߵ�·��¡�

��Դ�� ��й�ʯ��ʯ��