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2010-9-6

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��LN(EXst)=��1+��1LN(FDIst)+��t1(1)

��LN(IMst)=��2+��2LN(FDIst)+��t2(2)

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��ȣ��Է��(1)��(2)�и��ƽ��Լ��飬Ȼ��ݷ��(1)��LN(EXst)��LN(FDIst)��Э��ͬʱ��ݷ��(2)��LN(IMst)��LN(FDIst)��Э��Ӷ��ó��ҵֱ��Ͷ��FDI��ҹ��ҵ��EX�ĳ��ھ��Ӱ�죬�Լ��ҹ��ҵֱ��Ͷ��FDI��ҹ��ҵ��IM�ĳ��ھ��Ӱ�졣��Э��Ļ��ϣ��ٶԷ��ҵֱ��Ͷ��FDI�Է��ҵ��EX�ͷ��ҵ��IM�Ķ��Ӱ�죬��ģ��Ӱ��

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��ó�׳��InEXst��ҹ��ó�׽��InIMst��ҹ��ó��ĵ�ԭʼ��о�Ϊ��ƽ��У��ֱ�ӽ��лع��ƽ��е�ԭʼֵ��һ�ײ�ֺ��ADF��:��ԭʼֵΪ��ƽ��еı��һ�ײ��Ϊƽ��У��Ϊһ�׵��I(1)(��3)��

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��Ͻڵĵ�λ��֪��InFDIst��InEXst��InIMst��ͬ�׵��ģ��Ľ��E-G��Э��飬��߼��Ƿ��ͳ��ϵ��Э��ϵ��Ƿ��ھ��ѧ��ϵĳ��ھ��ϵ��Э��۵�˼��Ա��֮��Э��ϵ��ζ��ܱ��Ա��ͣ��֮��ȶ��ľ��ϵ��ܱ��Ա��͵Ĳ��ֹ��һ��в��У��в��Ӧ��ƽ�ȵġ��ˣ��һ��(��Ա��)֮��Ƿ��Э��ϵ�ȼ��ڼ��ع鷽�̵Ĳв��Ƿ��һ��ȶ��С�ͨ��ADF��PP��жϲв��е��ȶ��ԡ��Ĳ��ADF��飬��Eviews6.0�ļ��㣬�õ��µĽ��:

��LN(EXst)=-5.000+2.405LN(FDIst)+u^t(3)

��(-5.828)(13.226)

��R2=0.902�� R-=0.897�� F=174.922�� DW=1.431

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��u^t=��u^t-1+��t H0��^=1 H1:��^<1

��У��t��һ��̡��ɱ�4�ļ��֪(3)ʽ�в��ƽ�ȵģ��InFDIst��InEXst֮��ھ��Э��ϵ��

�� LN(IMst)=-6.894+2.812LN(FDIst)+u^t(4)

��(-8.603) (16.558)

��R2=0.935�� R-=0.932�� F=274.182�� DW=1.706

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��LN(EXst)=0.107+0.849��LN(FDIst)-0.153��^t-1(5)

�� (2.589) (2.397) (-1.268)

��R2=0.289�� R-=0.397�� F=7.249�� DW=2.773

�� LN(IMst)=0.115+1.009��LN(FDIst)-0.357��^t-1(6)

��(2.566)(2.630) (-2.846)

��R2=0.460�� R-=0.397�� F=7.249�� DW=2.773

��ģ��(5)ʽ��˵��ҹ��ķ��ҵFDI��ҹ��ҵ��һ��ף��ǻع�Ľ��ɾ�ϵ��ֻ��0.289��Ŀɾ�ϵ��ͣ��ų��ƫС�Ŀ��ԣ�˵��©��Ҫ�Ľ��ͱ��֪�ҹ��ҵ��ڲ��ȫ��ɷ��ҵ��FDI��ģ��ҵ�ڷ��ҵ��˲��ĥ��Ĺ��ף��Ǳ��ҵ��Ӱ��󣬿��ܻ��߷��(5)��ˮƽ��

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��1.�Ͼ�.��ó�׵�ʵ֤�о�[J].�׶��ó�״�ѧѧ��2008(6)

��2.��.��E-G��Э��ó��˳��ط��[J].�ϻ��ѧѧ��2008(5)

��3.�ܺ��Խ��.��̬��Ӱ��ҵ��Ч��й��ҵ��ʵ֤�о�[J].�Ͽ��ۣ�2008(6)

��4.��С��.��̬��Ĳ��빦Ч��й��ҵ��ʵ֤�о�[J].��磬2006(3)

��5.Johnson��M.��and D.Pick(1997):��Currency Quandary:The Choice of Invoicing Under Exchange Rate Uncertainty��Review of International Economics��5��118��128

��6.Kiyokata Sato (1999):��The International Use of the Japanese Yen:

��The Case of Japan's Trade with East Asia�� The World Economy��22��547��584

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